Model:

Times Series from the ECMWF

Osvježeno:
Update monthly
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 14:00 BST
Razlučivost:
1.0° x 1.0°
Parametar:
Precipitation
Opis:
The map 'Precip' shows the precipitation modeled over every 6 hours. The model does not forecast the exact amount of precipitation for every location. However, this chart is an important tool for forecasting intensity and local distribution of precipitation qualitatively.
Introduction to seasonal forecasting:
The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions.
 
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.
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