Modèle:

CFS: The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS)

Mise à jour:
1 times per day, at 17:00 UTC
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 13:00 CET
Résolution:
1.0° x 1.0°
Paramètre:
Kind of precipitation
Description:
kind of precipitation   Rain or shower? This chart shows the kind of precipitation that is likely to fall given the atmospheric and surface conditions at a certain place.

The following table explains the symbols:

Precipitation Light Moderate Heavy
Rain
Rain shower
Snow
Snow shower
Sleet
Freezing rain
Cloud Cover 0-2 3-4 5-7 8
(eights)
CFS:
The CFS model is different to any other operational weather forecasting model you will see on Weatheronline.
Developed at the Environmental Modelling Center at NCEP (National Centers for Environment Prediction) in the USA, the CFS became operational in August 2004.
The systems works by taking reanalysis data (NCEP Reanalysis 2) and ocean conditions from GODAS (Global Ocean data Assimilation). Both of these data sets are for the previous day, and so you should be aware that before initialisation the data is already one day old.
Four runs of the model are then made, each with slightly differing starting conditions, and from these a prediction is made.
Caution should be employed when using the forecasts made by the CFS. However, it is useful when monitored daily in assessing forecasts for the coming months, the confidence levels in these forecasts and in an assessment of how such long range models perform.
A description of the CFS is given in the following manuscript.
S. Saha, S. Nadiga, C. Thiaw, J. Wang, W. Wang, Q. Zhang, H. M. van den Dool, H.-L. Pan, S. Moorthi, D. Behringer, D. Stokes, M. Pena, S. Lord, G. White, W. Ebisuzaki, P. Peng, P. Xie , 2006 : The NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, No. 15, pages 3483.3517.
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
NWP:
La prévision numérique du temps (PNT) est une application de la météorologie et de l'informatique. Elle repose sur le choix d'équations mathématiques offrant une proche approximation du comportement de l'atmosphère réelle. Ces équations sont ensuite résolues, à l'aide d'un ordinateur, pour obtenir une simulation accélérée des états futurs de l'atmosphère. Le logiciel mettant en œuvre cette simulation est appelé un modèle de prévision numérique du temps.


Prévision numérique du temps. (2009, décembre 12). Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre. Page consultée le 20:48, février 9, 2010 à partir de http://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pr%C3%A9vision_num%C3%A9rique_du_temps&oldid=47652746.